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One card, counted both ways.

The October 7, 2026 archive shows why a win rate and a price-aware return answer different questions. Here is the arithmetic from the three recorded selections, including the losses.

By ClearInning · October 18, 2026

This is a worked audit of one actual ClearInning result record, not a representative season or a forecast. The October 7 archived edition records three graded selections: one win and two losses. Its archive disclosure says this was recovered historical data and that the original message completion time is unavailable. The recorded prices and grades can be audited; this record alone cannot establish when the edition first became publicly available.

The three recorded outcomes

Each calculation below uses the American price displayed in the archived record and a hypothetical flat $100 risk per selection. “Risk” is the amount lost if that selection loses; it is not a recommendation to place a wager.

Rank 1 · Chicago White Sox moneyline · -123 · LOSS

Cleveland won 9–3. A $100 risk at -123 would lose $100.

Rank 2 · Under 7.5 runs · -119 · WIN

The game ended 4–1, or five total runs. A $100 risk at -119 earns $100 × 100 ÷ 119 = $84.03 profit.

Rank 3 · New York Yankees moneyline · -158 · LOSS

Tampa Bay won 4–3. A $100 risk at -158 would lose $100.

The archived analysis also labels Rank 3 as “FORCED.” That label is part of the published record; it does not change how the outcome is counted.

Recalculate the record

Winning profit: $100 × 100 ÷ 119 = $84.03
Two losses: 2 × −$100 = −$200
Net: $84.03 − $200 = −$115.97
Amount risked: 3 × $100 = $300
Flat-$100 ROI: −$115.97 ÷ $300 = −38.66%
Win rate: 1 win ÷ (1 win + 2 losses) = 33.33%

The negative prices represent the amount that must be risked to profit $100; with a $100 stake, profit is therefore $100 multiplied by 100 and divided by the absolute price. Rounded figures may differ by a cent if each result is rounded before summing; the total above uses unrounded arithmetic and rounds the final net and ROI.

There are no pushes, voids, pending games, or carried selections in this three-row sample. If a record includes those statuses, the ledger’s stated inclusion rules and denominators must be followed rather than treating every row as a win or loss.

What this day can and cannot tell you

For this specific three-selection sample, the flat-$100 result is negative even though one selection won. The prices matter: the one win returned less than the amount lost on either loss. That is a description of these recorded outcomes, not evidence about long-run performance or the quality of every selection.

Three outcomes are too few to establish a stable win rate, expected return, repeatable edge, or future result. The recovered-record disclosure also limits what can be concluded about publication timing. Nothing here proves a reader could have obtained those prices, that a wager was placed, or that a similar result will recur.

Check the underlying record

Open the dated ClearInning archive to inspect the selections, prices, grades, reasoning, risks, and recovery disclosure. For independent game-day context, consult the official MLB scores for October 7 and the ESPN MLB scoreboard for October 7. The arithmetic on this page is derived from the ClearInning archive’s recorded American prices and grades.

For the general calculation rules, see the published-price ROI guide. To report a specific discrepancy, use the contact page.